Candle Effect v2: Lighter pool return and drawdown vs BTC

The details

• Deposits: $64k · pool created May 21, 2026 · window May 22, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026 (163 days, from the first day it held $10,000).
• Last 30 days: +2.4%; worst day in those 30 days: −0.7%; largest one-day move in the window: −1.5%.
• Operator: takes 30% of profits and owns 11.0% of the pool (Lighter's minimum for this pool: 5%). The operator's share is taken when depositors withdraw (Lighter docs).
• Lighter's own app shows an APY of +29.3% for this pool; it's annualized and on Lighter's own window, so it won't match the return above.
• Pool on Lighter: https://app.lighter.xyz/public-pools/281474976543116.

Return = last daily share price divided by the first, minus one, so deposits and withdrawals don't count; it's before the operator's profit share. Max drawdown is the worst fall from a peak in the daily share price. Full method.

What you're trusting

• The exchange: Lighter scores 68% on our Safety score (our gate for ranking is 50%). Custody: You sign with your own Ethereum wallet. Deposits sit in Lighter's Ethereum smart contracts, which 'hold the assets and the canonical state root'; the order book and matching run off-chain on Lighter's single operator/sequencer, and each batch is proven with zero-knowledge proofs on Ethereum. (L2BEAT)
• The operator: trades the pool's money through a sub-account however they like within Lighter's rules, and can change strategy or leverage at any time. We can verify the results, not how the trades are made.

Limits

• Past results don't predict future results.
• Survivorship: frozen pools and pools that closed before Oct 30, 2026 aren't tracked, and only pools that held up are ranked, so the ranked list looks better than all pools did.
• Short history: this pool has under a year of data in the window, which is too short to separate skill from luck.